Nigeria’s Average Oil Output Rose by 7% to 1.65mbpd in 2025

Nigeria’s average crude oil production, including condensates, rose by 7 percent year-on-year to 1.652 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first 11 months of 2025, up from 1.544 million bpd recorded in the same period of 2024.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that, despite the improvement, the country fell short of its 2025 budget production target of 2.06 million bpd. Nigeria also missed key fiscal assumptions on oil price and exchange rate, failing to meet the benchmark of $75 per barrel and the exchange rate projection of ₦1,400 to the dollar.

On a month-on-month basis, crude output stood at 1.599 million bpd in November 2025, a slight increase from 1.597 million bpd in October.

Findings indicated that the production shortfall influenced the Federal Government’s decision to adopt more conservative assumptions in the 2026 budget. While the 2025 budget set an ambitious output target of 2.06 million bpd, the government has adjusted its projections for 2026 to a crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an average exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar.

Presenting the 2026 budget, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the spending plan, themed “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” is aimed at stabilising the economy, strengthening competitiveness, and ensuring that growth translates into jobs, higher incomes, and improved living standards.

The President noted that oil production has improved due to enhanced security, increased use of technology, and ongoing sector reforms, while non-oil revenues have expanded through improved tax administration. He added that rising investor confidence has led to increased capital inflows and stronger private sector participation, with Nigeria’s external reserves reaching a seven-year high of about $47 billion, providing more than 10 months of import cover.